Monday, 27 June 2016

ISIS to Expand in Indonesia

Indonesia isn’t the first country that you might think of when talking about Islam. Yet at 258 million people, Indonesia is the fourth most populous country on earth, and with Muslims making up 87% of it’s population, it is easily the most populous Muslim nation.

So with Islamic terrorism becoming a major threat around the world, does the largest Muslim nation on earth have a problem with these jihadists? Since 2001, there have been well over a dozen notable terrorist attacks on Indonesian soil, with over 300 people killed. 202 of these were just from the 2002 Bali Bombings of Australian tourists on the Bali tourist island.

The majority of these attacks had links to Islamic terrorism, mostly to the notorious terrorist group Jemaah Islamiah, which is described by the Australian Government as being committed “to overthrow the Indonesian Government and establish a pan-Islamic state in South-East Asia”

While these figures are small in comparison with the number of terrorist attacks in other Muslim nations in the Middle East, a new report by the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) is concerned that the numbers will significantly rise due to “more potential fighters willing to take on the war at home” in Indonesia because of the recent tightening of the boarders around the Middle East war against ISIS.

One of the main efforts by the Indonesian government to tackle terrorism has been to put captured terrorists through a de-radicalization program run by Indonesia’s National Counter-Terrorism Agency (BNPT). But the program has come under intense scrutiny since one of it’s ‘graduates’ attacked a police traffic post only months later, as well as a Starbucks and a shopping mall in centre of the nation’s capital Jakarta.

According to an investigation published in ‘The Australian’ newspaper, the program to de-radicalize captured Islamic extremists in the biggest Muslim nation of Indonesia is quite obviously failing.

If the radicals capture a large portion of the youth vote in Indonesia we could see the country move towards having an extremist-nationalist driven Government in the near future. For neighbouring countries, such as Singapore, Malaysia and Australia, such an outcome would constitute a direct threat to their populations. In this scenario, if the US is taken down due to an economic collapse or natural disaster (the Yellowstone volcano), an expansionist Indonesian State might seek to attack its neighbours, in an effort to create a greater 'caliphate'.

Although wars are to be avoided negotiating from a position of strength is always the best way forward. Your national borders and human rights don't actually matter if someone with a gun can simply come and take these things from you.

Contingency planning is needed to ensure an adequate military response to any acts of aggression. There is an Australian Defence White Paper submission that directly addresses this problem: KEY CAPABILITY OBJECTIVES AND MISSION STATEMENT FOR THE AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE FORCE - 2015

Of course the rise of ISIS could be cut short if "the West, Gulf Countries, and Turkey" stopped supporting these extremists in Syria where they are being used as a tool of regime change.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 27th, 2016.]

Despite the Vote, the Odds Are Against Britain Leaving the EU — Paul Craig Roberts

The Brexit vote shows that a majority of the British voters understand that the UK government represents interests other than the interests of the British people. As difficult as the British know it is to hold their own government to account, they understand they have no prospect whatsoever of holding the EU government to account. During their time under the EU, the British have been reminded of historical times when law was the word of the sovereign.

The propagandists who comprise the Western political and media establishments succeeded in keeping the real issues out of public discussion and presenting the leave vote as racism. However, enough of the British people resisted the brainwashing and controlled debate to grasp the real issues: sovereignty, accountable government, financial independence, freedom from involvement in Washington’s wars and conflict with Russia.

The British people should not be so naive as to think that their vote settles the matter. The fight has only begun. Expect:

— The British government to come back to the people and say, look, the EU has given us a better deal. We can now afford to stay in.

— The Fed, ECB, BOJ, and NY hedge funds to pound the pound and to short British stocks in order to convince the British voters that their vote is sinking the economy.

— More emphasis on the vote’s weakening of Europe, leaving all to the mercy of “Russian aggression.”

— Hard to resist bribes (and threats) to prominent members of the leave majority and pressure on such leave leaders as Boris Johnson to be reasonable, concillatory and to maintain good relations with Washington and Europe, and to reach a compromise on remaining in the EU.

— Expect the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) to attribute the loss of British jobs and investment opportunities to the leave vote.

Once you learn to think about how things really are and not as the presstitutes present them, you will be able to add to the list all by yourself.

Remember, the Irish voted against the EU and pressure was kept on them until they reversed their vote. This is the likely fate of the British.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 27th, 2016.]

International Military Review – Syria, June 22-23

One of the US-backed terrorist groups is giving Al Nusra a captured T-90 battle tank. The first video points out there is a problem giving equipment to Syria Army Units because many lack the necessary training. If the Russians and Iranians deployed their own massed artillery units, some of this problem would be resolved.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 27th, 2016.]

Keiser Report (E931): All Sorts of Charts

In this episode of the Keiser Report from New York City, Max and Stacy bring out the charts! From foreigners selling US equities to Alibaba’s market share soaring and Deutsche Bank’s stock price tumbling. In the second half, Max interviews author and fund manager, Mitch Feierstein of, about the downgrading of Japan’s outlook and the outlook for US interest rates and economy as the Federal Reserve struggles with magical policy solutions.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 27th, 2016.]

Trumps Hillary Killer! Miller Exposes Corruption that Even Trump Won’t Touch!

Trump uses others to help promote his message. Stephen Miller is one of the other voices that Trump is using. He delivers one of the best speeches I have ever heard. We all know that Trump is soon going to have a speech on the corruption of the Clinton’s. We now have a taste of what is about to come. Forget Bills’ sex scandals, they will pale in comparison to the utter hell Trump is about to unleash on both Hillary and Bill. The evidence is so overwhelming and well documented that there is almost no way the FBI won’t finally indict Hillary. You can tell from Trumps last few speeches that he is talking directly to FBI head Comey. Trump knows Comey wants to indict and he is basically telling him that he NEEDS to obey the law! This is going to be a real bloodbath!

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 27th, 2016.]

A Brief Deconstruction of Moody's: The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic Policies - A Reply Made to a Facebook Comment.

COMMENT: Here's a report from some so called 'impartial' 'experts' on the Trump economy, so safe to ignore..

REPLY: You mean the experts at Moody's who failed to pick any of the major downturns and that provided Triple A ratings to securities that were essentially junk?

Although I think Trump's tax reductions go too far, they will stimulate economic activity within the country along with a protectionist tariff policy that is designed to bring back internal productive activity (Obama just put a 500% tariff on Chinese steel) The paper speculates (wrongly) that corporations will simply move production to places in South East Asia and that the tariff policy will only target places like China and Mexico. This indicates an incomplete understanding of the policy. The goal is to bring back the US manufacturing base that has largely been offshored. The fact that they don't explicitly point this out makes me suspicious.

The fact that they talk about Globalisation in glowing terms throughout makes me even more suspicious especially when juxtaposed to US growth prospects (more on this later).

The paper begins by justifying itself via appeals to authority - but a record of rating agency performance in recent years reveals that the these authorities have a record of getting things wrong.

Here is a joke: Q:Why did God create economists?
A:In order to make weather forecasters look good.

Going into the specific claims made by the paper ... It says that Mr Trump's economic policies will lead to a more isolated economy with less cross border trade and immigration, and less direct foreign investment (as if this were a bad thing - the US has capital generating capacity). That is the whole point of the Trump economic policies anyway.

It's not like the US will be completely isolated either. Consider what is happening in Russia after the sanctions. Despite actually being economically isolated from their major European partners, the Russian economy, after declining, is now growing again. The country did not fall apart. Internal productive activity necessarily had to increase. And more jobs and business activity means more tax revenue for the Government outside their resource heavy revenue base. Besides, Russia has other trading partners such as India and China that compliments internal job creating activity. US 'isolationism' will not be as extreme as the Russian example or detrimental to their long term growth.

The thing that irked me most about the Moody's paper was its repeated claim about how GLOBALISATION contributes to the 'ongoing economic growth' of the US economy - which is plainly false. How did it contribute to US growth when there wasn't any?        

The US economy never recovered from the 2007-9 recession: unless you believe the inflated stock prices on the Dow Jones. You should ask yourself why the Swiss Central Bank has been buying US equities, presumably along with the Federal Reserve plunge protection team, in stocks that comprise 100% of gains on the US S&P500 for the half year in 2015. This is a central bank, but it's acting like a hedge fund.

This is not to say that there are no real buyers here, but the markets are clearly being propped up (along with Gold price suppression - you can research that yourself).

Then you have to consider real US unemployment figures, that the Moody's paper simply states as being at 5% (the U3 figure). A more accurate official measure of unemployment in the US is the U6 figure that has unemployment at closer to 10%. However, with 46 million people on food stamps, record low labour participation rates, and the continuing decline in fulltime employment (admitted in official figures), a real unemployment rate of nearer 20% is more realistic (see This is a disaster - something that Trump has pointed out.

Globalisation has simply been used as cover for corporations of all sorts to engage in labour arbitrage (capital and industry flight aimed at low wage countries) - to places where there are also less workplace health and safety concerns or environmental considerations. The outsourcing of the productive capacity of First World countries to the Third World, to increase corporate profit, is what has destroyed the US economy.

The Moody's paper neglects this fundamental issue of trade - and Trump's trade policy. There is an over-focus on his across-the-board tax cuts where they assume this will lead to (only short term!?) lower growth. They assume offshore industries will simply move to places like South East Asia if Trump puts tariffs on China and Mexico - which shows their modelling must be deficient - because Trump will simply extend the tariffs. Their modelling should assume the building of new factories within US borders.

The biggest problem Moody's pointed out, which I agree with, will be a period of lower revenue and increasing debt if Trump gets in. Nevertheless, their model on these points still cannot be accurate because of their assumptions about trade (and Trump's actual actions against rising US debt are unclear but it is likely to be a default, the debt is practically unpayable anyway).

Their lead chart shows that under Trump, they think there will be a recession and then a period of growth. They assume that EXISTING POLICY will not cause a recession, although there are many indicators of economic activity at present that points to recession:

I simply do not believe their no-Trump/no-recession chart based on existing indicators and Moody's past record. The funny thing is, they do predict growth and relatively low unemployment even with Trump's most hardline policies but after a recession with unemployment going from 5% to 7% and with increased debt and slightly lower GDP. (note: I don't think their 2026 predictions are credible tho. 10 year economic forecasts?)

Whatever happens the US will be faced with some sort of economic Reality Check regardless of who is President. Their idea of 5% rising to 7% unemployment within 5 years shows how out of touch these people are with the reality of today. Things are ALREADY very bad - much worse than reported.

The authors 'warned' that under Trump household income will decline, as well as stock and house prices. But real wages are going nowhere anyway as full time jobs have been converting to lower wage part time jobs. When the US officially falls into recession stock and house prices will go down regardless!!

The biggest problem is we have experienced is what has been characterised as a "jobless recovery" -
Those recent employment numbers are rigged: Although not mentioned at that link, fictional 'unreported jobs' numbers are always added to the employment figures that assumes(!) growth over stagnation or decline. Honest analysis of recent (5 years) jobs figures shows declines or very low added numbers. As I pointed out before, other indicators, like the labour force participation rate shows what is really going on.

And large numbers of people without jobs, or declining income, generally damages prospects for economic growth. People without jobs, or living close to poverty, cannot buy those cheap imported goods in a Globalised marketplace. You could buy plastic buckets perhaps (good for catching rainwater), but what about more expensive goods, and daily food purchases, and the water and electricity bills etc?

The icing on the cake for me was reading their brief comment about the TPP and the 'liberalisation' of trade - that these things are helping growth. Not in the USA. Trump's issue is that such trade deals have not helped US growth and he is right.

I do have reservations about Trump's tax plan in terms of revenue, but, combined with trade tariffs, this will generate non-government growth. The biggest problem will be with the value of the US dollar. High finance has kept the dollar afloat (via Fed/central bank purchases of US Treasuries, Gold price suppression) and forgiven the US debt repayments - where I think Trump will simply default. Plus the US dollar as the reserve (Petrodollar) currency has stopped it declining too.

Yes, I agree with Moody's that Trump won't be able to spend big on the military (if we want to get real on US spending commitments), although he plans to close overseas US bases unless countries pay more for their 'protection.' If he goes after the military-industrial-corporations he will save a lot of money (presently what goes on is a rort) - in the order of tens of billions.

I don't disagree that things will turn bad for the US, but this Moody's thing (they are part of the Washington special interest group club) underplays the benefits of Trumps policies (which will not necessarily be without recession) and MASSIVELY overplays the status quo.

Go and research all the key points I raised about the present state of the US economy before you answer. Thanks for taking an interest.

One more joke:  A physicist, a chemist and an economist are stranded on an island, with nothing to eat. A can of peas washes ashore. The physicist says, "Let's smash the can open with a rock." The economist thinks that's hilarious, and says, "That's ridiculous, you'll have peas all over the place.". The chemist says, "Let's build a fire and heat the can first." The economist thinks that's even more hilarious, and says, "That's ridiculous, the can will explode and you'll have peas all over the place." Both the physicist and the chemist are getting rather irate, and the physicist say, "What do you suggest?" And the economist says, "It's simple. Assume we have a can-opener....."

Also, for fun, watch a few episodes of the Keiser Report (YT). I don't agree with everything that is said on the show, but they do point out key issues concerning financial corruption and most of their guests have expert knowledge that runs counter to what is commonly reported in the mainstream press (although mainstream business news is not all bad - they do point out a lot of things that are then conveniently forgot).

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 27th, 2016.]

Sunday, 26 June 2016

CrossTalk BREXIT: GOAL! (Recorded 24 June)

Well it has happened! Citizens of the UK have decided to call it quits. The decades long debate whether to remain part of the Europe Union has been settled. Brexit is a reality. What’s next? CrossTalking with Xavier Moreau, John Laughland, and Alexander Mercouris.

The EU is undemocratic. Geopolitical perspectives on the Brexit.

Related Info:

'Here's the twist' - Patrick Young shares optimism about UK economy

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 26th, 2016.]

Foreign Policy Diary - Donbass People's Militias: History & Capabilities

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 26th, 2016.]

'EU is Failing, EU is Dying': Nigel Farage Speech Following Brexit Vote

The leader of the Independence Party (UKIP), Nigel Farage, has called for June 23 to go down in history as 'Independence Day', adding that it's a “victory for ordinary, decent people, a victory against the big merchant banks.”

Other countries in Europe will now follow the UK lead.

Related Info:

Brexit does not make UK 'less European' - Boris Johnson

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 26th, 2016.]

Brexit Wins! Cameron Resigns!! EUpocalypse Now!!!

Britain has voted to leave the EU! Cameron is stepping down as Prime Minister! The EUreaucrats are holding crisis meetings to avoid a EUpocalypse! No, this is not the end of the road, merely the beginning of the beginning. But let's pause for just one second to celebrate a bit of good news.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 26th, 2016.]

Crazy Violent Left-Wing Extremists

When will Hillary Clinton disavow Omar Mateen?

Double standards suck.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 26th, 2016.]

Young People Shocked By Hillary's Scandals

How informed are you? This short three minute video has 6 (verified) quotes and facts that could be attributed to either Trump or Hillary. Can you pick which is which? Remember the video title could be satirical. Don't make any assumptions. 3 minutes. Go for it.

Please share widely!

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 26th, 2016.]

Saturday, 25 June 2016

America's Global War: Strategy and Empire - GRTV

As NATO forces conduct full-scale military exercises on Russia’s doorstep, the world’s attention once again turns to Eastern Europe. But as Professor Michel Chossudovsky, author of Towards A WWIII Scenario and The Globalization of War points out, in this era of total warfare, the real threat is not just a military one and its scope is truly global.

Chossudovsky talks about various forms of destabilisation; coups, proxy war terrorists, social 'revolutions' and financial warfare/intervention that benefits elite interests that control Washington policy. The ultimate aim is to draw countries into the US-UK financial sphere of influence.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 25th, 2016.]

US Think Tanks Lost in Own Fantasy World of Russian Aggression and Imminent Collapse - Pepe Escobar

So it's time for US Think Tankland – as in CIA front Stratfor, among others – to renew their spin offensive, mixing “analyses” of imminent Russian economic collapse with calls for more NATO pressure over Russia’s western borderlands.

A solid case can be made that Moscow does not need mountains of Western investment; credit can be created in Russia. Most of all, there is rather less productive investment money in the West than wild speculative funds; it’s largely a matter of fiat money and credit, and Moscow does not need to go to the West for that.

As long as Russia uses investment capital to increase the production of goods, this will offset the increase in money supply. So in the end inflation will be negligible. Quite a few Russians must be puzzled at the Central Bank’s Elvira Nabiullina, with her policy of raising interest rates to cut back the increase in investment; that could eventually lead to a strangled Russia. Not accidently Nabiullina happens to be extremely praised by US Think Tankland and the City of London.

As to what credits would Russia use to pay for needed imported technology the obvious answer is to draw from energy exports – especially now with the oil price back on the way up. And here intervenes the temptation to redirect the export of oil and natural gas away from the EU to China and Asia – and let the EU grapple with its eternally inconsistent “energy policy”, which consists mainly of blaming Gazprom

It’s a myth that a dearth of foreign investment today will delay large projects in Russia – including the energy front; China will step up infrastructure investment in Russia with many projects linked to the New Silk Roads and overall Eurasia integration, as even US Think Tankland admits.

Russia may also replace most Western imports other than technology by building their own plants, following the massively successful Chinese model that has enabled Beijing, based on purchasing power parity, to become a larger industrial force than the US or the EU. 

One would be hard-pressed to find US Think Tankland focusing on American economic collapse – as true unemployment in the US may be as high as 23%. Inflation is also much higher, as the Bureau of Labor statistics takes out of the commodity basket rapidly rising individual commodities or products and substitutes it for less expensive replacements. This biases inflation to about half its actual rise over time. Meanwhile the — dwindling — “American dream” middle class is being squeezed, and that largely explains the masses coming out to cheer Donald Trump.

So we have reached a geopolitical juncture where the US is politically being torn apart as the EU is flooded by a sort of neo-Visigoth invasion. And this may be just a prelude. EU decision makers are so lost in space that they cannot control the Fortress’s borders (and need a dodgy deal with Sultan Erdogan); but at the same time this does not prevent them from being led to (cold) war with Russia.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 25th, 2016.]

Breitbart: Britain Votes With Donald Trump - U.K. Leaves The European Union - Stuart Varney

Breitbart: Britain Votes With Donald Trump - U... by debunkerbuster

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 25th, 2016.]

Hannity 6/22/16 - Sean Hannity on Donald Trump speech on Hillary Clinton & 'Clinton Cash'

Full Speech: Donald Trump Delivers Anti-Hillary... by debunkerbuster

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 25th, 2016.]

Keiser Report (E930): Economic Anxiety in Divided America

In this episode of the Keiser Report from New York City, Max and Stacy discuss economic anxiety in a ‘divided America,’ in which ‘rosy averages’ bypass most. In the second half, Max interviews Chris Whalen about negative rates, outlook downgrades and central bank policies.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 25th, 2016.]

EXPOSED: How The Clintons Likely STOLE BILLIONS From World's Poorest

Investor and financial crimes researcher Charles Ortel joins me to uncover what he is calling "the “largest unprosecuted charity fraud ever attempted." Charles reports that the Clinton Foundation is part of an “international charity fraud network whose entire cumulative scale approaches and may even exceed $100 billion, measured from 1997 forward.” And the most shocking aspect of the Clinton Foundation's missing Billions is that much of it was stolen from those who need it most, the world's poorest of the poor. Along with the Bush crime family, the Clintons formed The Clinton-Bush Haiti Fund after the devastating 2010 Haiti earthquake. Charles says, "What the Clintons have done, is they are stealing the people's physical gold in Haiti, as well as perhaps stealing or diverting massive sums that were sent towards Haiti and refusing to make an accounting for it."
This is a story of fraud and corruption so vast in scope that it should result in putting the Clintons in prison, not back in the White House.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 25th, 2016.]

Friday, 24 June 2016

CrossTalk on Syria: Dissent Memo

The Syrian showdown is looming. A rebellion has broken out in the ranks of the State Department against Obama’s handling of the conflict. The Pentagon and the CIA are at odds. And Russia has demonstrated it has lost patience with Washington’s so-called moderates. The status quo cannot hold. CrossTalking with Richard Weitz, Mark Sleboda, and Lawrence Wilkerson.

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 24th, 2016.]

International Military Review - Syria and Iraq, June 20-21

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, June 24th, 2016.]