Sunday, 13 August 2017

Trump Gives Update on North Korea

President Trump gives an update on the North Korea situation after a National Security Briefing, and takes some questions from reporters in Bedminster, New Jersey

Although there is continued tough talk from both the US and North Korea the situation here, in terms of outcomes, is pretty simple.

If the US strikes North Korea one will expect a counter strike by the North Koreans. Such counter striking may likely be an escalated response (causing more damage that the original attack.) Any escalation to full scale war would see Seoul destroyed within hours (or minutes) and most of North Korea destroyed, where Chinese military forces would be introduced to defend their allies.

Neither South Korea, North Korea, or China would be happy with this outcome, so they will do everything to avoid it. The Chinese especially do not want to be subject to US economic sanctions (which are likely to kick in during a conflict).

What may happen is some sort of backroom deal between North Korea and China to stop Kim Jong Un's missile tests. If this happens the situation will de-escalate. If the US and South Korea conduct further provocative war games on the border, as they usually do, then the best thing would be for North Korea to ignore it. If they must react, the North Korea army can hold its own military exercises(excluding the firing ballistic missiles), where they can show off their conventional military equipment - like armoured vehicles, artillery pieces, and aircraft. 

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, August 13th, 2017.]

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