Monday, 14 November 2016

Implausible: the 2016 Ohio Published Exit Poll

The  unadjusted 2016 exit polls show large discrepancies to the recorded vote in battleground states. This analysis compares the Ohio reported vote, the Edison Research unadjusted exit poll, the CNN adjusted poll (matched to the recorded vote) and the True Vote Model.
Clinton led the average of nine pre-election national polls by 45.8-43.3%.
Trump led Independents by 43.6-33.8%.

Trump won the OH  reported vote by 52.0-43.5%.  But  according to the CNN published exit poll, he won by just 47.1-47.0%. Does the discrepancy indicate that votes were rigged for Trump? Not at all, the evidence indicates that he won OH as reported.

The unadjusted exit poll discrepancies are largely due to the implausible difference between Trump and Clinton’s share of Independents. To match the CNN published exit poll, Clinton must have won the Independent vote by an implausible 50-34%.

1: CNN exit poll. Implausible.
2012 Party-ID (41D-42R-17I)
Trump 47.1- Clinton 47.0%
Independents: Clinton 47-Trump 28% (implausible)

2: CNN exit poll. Implausible.
2016 Party-ID (34D-37R-29I)
Trump 47.1- Clinton 47.0%
Independents: Clinton 50-Trump 34%  (implausible)

3:  OH reported vote. Plausible.
2016 Party-ID (34D-37R-29I)
Trump 52.1- Clinton 43.5%
Independents: Trump 51-Clinton 38% (plausible)

4: OH True Vote Model. Plausible.
Close match to the reported vote.
2016 Party-ID (32.4D-33.4R-34.2I)
Trump 46.7- Clinton 41.6% (before undecided voter allocation)
Trump 50.5- Clinton 42.9% (after undecided voter allocation)
Independents: Trump 43.9-Clinton 32.6% (plausible)

[Posted at the SpookyWeather blog, November 14th, 2016.]

No comments: