Monday, 31 December 2007

US Economy Slowly but Surely Falling into Recession.

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell and were poised for their first fourth-quarter decline since 2000 after government reports on durable goods and unemployment reinforced speculation the housing-market collapse will push the economy into recession.

Later in the article it states, among other bad news, that the US unemployment rate has increased to 4.8%. This is the problem with a lot of US economic data- it's cooked.

The US unemployment rate, when measured verses the standards used for other economies is not 4.8%. The real US rate should be in the order of about 10% (see here). Another significant cooked statistic, not mentioned in the article, is inflation. The real US rate is not 2 or 3%, it's more like 16 percent (see here).

Things are a lot worse in the US than we have been led to believe. 2008 will be a difficult year as economic reality rears its ugly head.

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